Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
| Fundamental Factors | Latest | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2.8T | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% |
| Revenue | $775.7B* | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) | $254.0B* | 33.5% | 38.5% | 133.1% |
| Net Income | $135.3B* | 31.1% | 94.7% | 1217.7% |
| Earnings Per Share (EPS)ⓘ | $12.60* | 28.8% | 91.9% | 1192.6% |
| Total Assetsⓘ | $1.1T | 30.9% | 18.4% | 14.1% |
| Book Value | $551.6B | 43.7% | 41.7% | 38.2% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF)ⓘ | -$11.6B* | -76.6% | 2.1% | 290.7% |
| Cash | $78.2B | 10.2% | 7.3% | 36.2% |
| FCF Yieldⓘ | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
| FCF / Total Assets | -1.1% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% |
| FCF / Total Liabilities | -2.1% | 1.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% |
| Earnings Yieldⓘ | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Operating Marginⓘ | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 6.4% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)ⓘ | 24.5% | 18.9% | 20.7% | 15.1% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)ⓘ | 10.7% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 8.2% |
| Estimated Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)ⓘ | 9.9% | |||
| Buyback Yieldⓘ | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | — | — | — |
| Price vs 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA)ⓘ | 8.4% | |||
| Relative Strength Index (RSI)ⓘ | 49.9 | |||
* Trailing twelve months (sum of last four reported quarters)
Price is at a P/B of approximately 5.1x, near the lower end of its historical range, and EV/EBITDA at around 16.9x sits around the midpoint of its historical range, placing the stock broadly in the lower half of its valuation ranges across most metrics. This, when factored in with the other highlighted financial measures, is indicative of a neutral signal at this time for Amazon.com, Inc. The P/E multiple, currently near 21.1x, sits near the lower end of its historical range, while EV/EBITDA, as noted, sits around the midpoint, together suggesting the market is attributing a degree of value relative to recent earnings recovery. The 43.7% balance sheet growth rate over the past year (rising book value, following a significant rise the prior year as well) is expanding the capital base at a pace that supports multiple durability over the medium term, with the latest quarter continuing in that same upward direction. ROIC stands at 10.7%, and versus an estimated WACC of 9.92%, that spread is narrow, suggesting Amazon's returns are still covering its cost of capital, though the margin is not wide enough to justify extended multiple expansion from current levels. The complicating factor here is FCF: on a TTM basis, free cash flow has turned negative at roughly negative $11.6 billion, driven by a 2026 capex program now guided to $220 billion, the largest capital deployment in the company's history, which compresses the FCF yield and eliminates P/FCF as a useful valuation anchor for this period. Operating margin has expanded from 6.4% in FY2023 to 10.8% in FY2024 and further to 11.2% in FY2025, with the TTM now reaching 12.1%, a direction that supports earnings quality even as near-term free cash flow is being consumed by infrastructure investment. The primary and supplemental factors identified all tie in to support the neutral scenario displayed in the forward range above, suggesting continued monitoring of the company until there is a more clear price discount relative to its fundamentals.4712
Amazon Web Services (AWS) reached an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $169 billion in Q2 2026, growing at a pace that is re-accelerating, and it remains the single most important margin engine in the consolidated business. AWS operating margins, while not separately disclosed as a percentage in every quarterly filing, have historically operated well above 30% and account for the majority of consolidated operating income despite representing less than 25% of consolidated revenue. In the June 2026 quarter, total company operating income reached $27.5 billion, up approximately 43% year-over-year, against revenue of $200.6 billion, a 20% increase from the $167.7 billion reported in Q2 2025. The North America segment contributed $9.1 billion in operating income at a 7.9% operating margin, and the International segment delivered $1.7 billion at a 4.1% operating margin, both improving from prior-year levels as fulfillment efficiency gains and third-party seller services density increase contribution per shipment. The structural advantage AWS holds over competitors, specifically Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, is not principally in pricing but in the depth of managed service integrations that make migration costly for enterprise customers who have built workloads around proprietary AWS primitives such as Graviton processors and native AI tooling. Graviton5, Amazon's custom Arm-based chip, is growing nearly twice as fast as Graviton4 did at the equivalent point in its ramp, and Graviton is already used by 98% of AWS's top 1,000 EC2 customers as of the Q2 2026 earnings call. This level of chip-level lock-in is a durable behavioral retention mechanism: once a customer's software stack is compiled and tuned for Graviton, switching to an Intel or AMD instance carries real re-optimization cost. Revenue commitments tied to Graviton have increased nearly three times quarter-over-quarter, which is a leading indicator of forward AWS revenue visibility. The agentic AI product layer, including Amazon Quick and AWS Continuum, is being positioned as an enterprise workflow automation platform that layers on top of existing AWS infrastructure, and CEO Andy Jassy confirmed on the July 30, 2026 earnings call that the AWS backlog is growing substantially, reflecting sustained enterprise demand across core cloud and AI workloads. On the retail side, the third-party seller services and advertising segments are the incremental margin contributors within North America. Advertising in particular, where Amazon captures intent-driven search spend from buyers already inside the purchase funnel, carries economics that are structurally superior to broad-reach display advertising. The same-day perishables initiative, now covering 2,300 U.S. cities with monthly active perishables customers up more than 50% since the start of 2026, is expanding the addressable share of grocery wallet and increasing order frequency, which has compounding effects on Prime retention. The Zoox robotaxi subsidiary received approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) under a Part 555 exemption in July 2026 to charge for commercial rides, becoming the first purpose-built autonomous vehicle to receive this designation. While Zoox does not contribute to revenue in any material way today, the regulatory clearance removes a key commercialization barrier and extends Amazon's logistics autonomy thesis beyond warehouse automation. The near-term risk to the margin story is the scale of the 2026 capex commitment. At $220 billion of guided capital expenditure for the full year, depreciation will accelerate materially in 2027 and 2028 as these assets come into service, creating a period where operating income growth may be partially offset by rising depreciation charges. Antitrust scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and 18 state attorneys general, discussed further in the regulatory section, represents an additional structural risk to the seller and advertising marketplace economics if the court imposes behavioral remedies.48
Amazon announced its intention to acquire Globalstar, Inc. in April 2026, a strategic transaction designed to add direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity to Amazon Leo, the company's low Earth orbit satellite network, which has now launched nearly 400 satellites and commenced initial service. The Globalstar acquisition is pending regulatory approval as of the report date and has not yet closed. The stated rationale is to integrate cellular coverage extension into Amazon Leo's broadband offering and to power satellite services for iPhone and Apple Watch under an agreement struck with Apple, covering Emergency SOS via satellite functionality. If completed, the transaction would position Amazon Leo as an infrastructure-layer competitor to SpaceX's Starlink in the satellite connectivity market while opening a services distribution channel through Apple's installed device base, a meaningful embedded audience. The financial terms have not been publicly disclosed at this stage, and the earnings, book value, or diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) impact cannot be quantified until the deal closes and purchase accounting is finalized. Separately, Amazon completed the acquisition of Fauna Robotics, a New York City-based robotics platform, in March 2026. The transaction was small relative to Amazon's asset base and is not expected to have a material standalone impact on reported financials, though it deepens Amazon's internal robotics capability for fulfillment automation. Both transactions are directionally consistent with a capital allocation posture focused on building proprietary infrastructure rather than returning cash to shareholders.8
The FTC antitrust lawsuit filed in September 2023, alleging that Amazon illegally maintains monopoly positions in online retail and third-party seller services, remains active as of today and is scheduled for trial in October 2026 in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington. In April 2025, a federal judge denied Amazon's motion to dismiss, meaning the substantive charges, specifically that Amazon suppresses competition and causes elevated prices for shoppers and sellers, will proceed to trial. The case was brought jointly by the FTC and 18 state attorneys general plus Puerto Rico, giving it cross-jurisdictional political durability that makes a pre-trial settlement less straightforward. A finding against Amazon, or a consent decree imposing behavioral remedies, could directly constrain the pricing algorithms and seller service fee structures that underpin the North America segment's operating margin expansion, representing a material risk to the forward earnings case. On resolved matters: the FTC reached a $1 billion civil penalty plus $1.5 billion in consumer redress settlement with Amazon in September 2025 related to unwanted Prime enrollment and deferred cancellation practices affecting approximately 35 million consumers. The aggregate $2.5 billion resolution is less than 0.35% of FY2025 revenue of $716.9 billion, making it financially immaterial on its own, though it reflects a pattern of FTC engagement that keeps regulatory overhead elevated. Most recently, on June 30, 2026, the FTC settled a Fair Credit Reporting Act violation case, with Amazon paying $2.25 million in civil penalties for failing to provide identity theft victims with required records within statutory timeframes, a matter that Amazon resolved without contest. The October 2026 antitrust trial is the only pending matter with the capacity to affect the business model structurally, and it warrants close monitoring through the remainder of calendar 2026.814
Jeffrey P. Bezos, Executive Chair and director of Amazon.com, Inc., sold approximately 1.21 million shares on August 3, 2026 at a weighted average price of approximately $286.41, generating proceeds of roughly $346 million. This transaction was filed under SEC Form 4 and follows Bezos's established pattern of periodic share sales from a position that, even after this sale, remains among the largest individual equity stakes in any publicly traded U.S. company. CEO Andrew R. Jassy sold 20,000 shares on August 21, 2026 for aggregate proceeds of approximately $5.2 million, and Senior Vice President David Zapolsky sold 15,450 shares on May 21, 2026 for approximately $4.1 million. All three transactions are sales, with no open-market purchases disclosed in the six-month window. Insider sales by executives at large-cap companies are frequently pre-scheduled under Rule 10b5-1 plans and do not necessarily reflect a view on near-term valuation; however, the absence of any insider buying across this period is a mild contradiction of the bull case and is broadly consistent with the neutral signal.8
Amazon's June 2026 quarter diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $5.75 represented growth of approximately 242% over the year-prior period's $1.68, a result that has prompted a near-unanimous favorable assessment from the analyst community. As of September 3, 2026, 39 of 40 analysts covering Amazon carry a buy-equivalent rating, with one hold and no sell recommendations, reflecting a consensus of Strong Buy. Keybanc maintained its Overweight rating following the July 31, 2026 earnings release, and Wedbush and Citizens each released updated research on July 15 to 16, 2026, though specific price target revisions were not confirmed in available sources at the time of this report. The TTM P/E of approximately 20.6x implies the market is embedding a mid-to-high teens earnings growth expectation into the forward price, which is broadly consistent with the operating leverage trajectory visible in the three most recent annual income statements. Forward estimate revisions following the Q2 2026 quarter are being monitored.812
Amazon did not repurchase any common shares during the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, consistent with its posture across all three fiscal years in the data set, and pays no dividend, meaning total capital return to shareholders is effectively zero as the company directs all available cash toward infrastructure investment. With FCF negative at approximately negative $11.6 billion on a TTM basis and operating cash flow of $161.4 billion being fully absorbed by capital expenditure of approximately $173 billion over the same period, there is no surplus cash available to fund a buyback program without additional debt issuance. Capex for FY2025 totaled $131.8 billion, representing approximately 18.4% of FY2025 revenue of $716.9 billion, compared with $83.0 billion in FY2024, approximately 13.0% of revenue, a step-change in the rate of investment that reflects accelerating data center and AI infrastructure build-out. For 2026, management has guided to $220 billion of capital expenditure for the full year, implying the second-half run rate will remain near or above the combined $98.4 billion spent in Q1 and Q2 2026. The diluted share count has grown modestly from approximately 10.49 billion in FY2023 to 10.83 billion in FY2025, a function of stock-based compensation offset by no buyback activity, resulting in mild dilution of roughly 1.3% per annum at the recent rate. Amazon currently holds long-term debt ratings of Aa2 from Moody's and AA from S&P, placing it among the highest-rated large-cap corporates globally and reflecting the balance sheet flexibility to access capital markets at favorable rates to fund the current capex cycle without material credit risk.451283
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Sensitivity Sampler below provides a range of potential implied share prices using a standard DCF model. Free cash flow compounds at your chosen FCF growth rate for years 1-5, then a terminal value is applied in year 6 using the perpetuity growth rates shown in the columns. The base case uses a WACC of 9.9% and a market-implied terminal growth rate of at least 8.0% or more given the company's fundamental profile and current stock price. Use the slider to set your view on FCF growth, then use the grid to test different long-run assumptions. Green cells indicate scenarios where the implied price exceeds the current trading price of $259.04; red cells indicate the opposite. This analysis is presented here for informational purposes and does not drive the signal or recommendation.
| WACC \ Terminal growth (g) | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% ◂ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $4 | $5 | $7 | $20 |
| 9.4% | $4 | $4 | $6 | $13 |
| 9.9% ◂ | $3 | $4 | $5 | $10 |
| 10.4% | $3 | $4 | $5 | $8 |
| 10.9% | $3 | $4 | $5 | $7 |
Note: the market-implied terminal growth rate for this stock is at least 8% or more, which is beyond what we display here. A terminal growth rate above 4-5% is generally considered aggressive in DCF calculations, and basically implies the company will grow faster than the broader economy indefinitely. When the implied rate hits 8% or more it typically means the current price reflects expectations of significant future earnings power (new business lines, margin expansion, market share gains) that are not yet present, or realistic, relative to today's free cash flow.
Sources
- [1]Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, filed February 6, 2026.
- [2]Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, filed February 7, 2025.
- [3]Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, filed February 2, 2024.
- [4]Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 31, 2026.
- [5]Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-Q, quarter ended March 31, 2026, filed April 30, 2026.
- [6]Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-Q, quarter ended December 31, 2025, filed February 6, 2026.
- [7]Damodaran, A. (2026). Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications. NYU Stern.
- [8]Amazon.com, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call and Press Release, July 30–31, 2026. Cited for AWS run rate, Graviton metrics, Zoox NHTSA approval, Globalstar acquisition, analyst consensus, and insider trading SEC Form 4 data.
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